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Key Insights

AI Exposure to the Canadian Job Market

Exposure by Sector

Average AI exposure score by NOC broad occupational category, weighted by employment.

The Pay Paradox

Higher-paid workers face greater AI exposure. Average score by wage bracket.

Exposure by Education

AI exposure by TEER (Training, Education, Experience, Responsibility) level.

AI Impact Timeline

When will AI impact hit? Based on Eloundou et al. LLM exposure tiers and COPS demand projections.

Double Jeopardy: Most At-Risk Occupations

High AI exposure score AND shrinking labour demand. These jobs are most likely to contract first.

Safest Jobs

Low AI exposure AND strong labour demand. Physical work the economy needs more of.

Top 15 Most Exposed by Wage Impact

Occupations with the largest total payroll at high AI exposure (score ≥ 6), ranked by employment × median wage.

Public vs Private Sector

AI exposure split by employment sector. Each occupation classified by Claude based on typical employer type in Canada.

Supply-Demand-AI Triangle

Each bubble is an occupation. X-axis = labour supply/demand ratio (>1 = surplus). Y-axis = AI exposure score. Size = employment. Red quadrant = high exposure + surplus = maximum risk.

Immigration at Risk

Occupations with highest immigration share of job seekers, colored by AI exposure. If AI displaces these roles, immigration pipelines are disrupted.

Growth Trajectories (2024–2033)

Projected employment growth for the most and least AI-exposed occupations. Declining lines = shrinking demand.

Expert Disagreement

Occupations where human experts and GPT-4 most disagree on AI exposure (Eloundou et al.). High disagreement = uncertain impact.

Human Moats vs AI Moat

Themes extracted from 516 AI scoring rationales. Left: factors that protect jobs from AI. Right: factors that make jobs vulnerable.

Human Moats
AI Moat